MINSK (Molodnaia Pravda Bureau of Energy Policy & Historical Pattern Recognition,
Dmitri reporting, who begin this dispatch by opening very old file,
blow dust off it, confirm content is still current,
and close file without changing anything) —
Supreme Leader Lukashenko has this week issue
formal communiqué of congratulation, admiration, and
one small tear of nostalgic joy
to Premier Trump and to the United States of America
for successfully completing
fifty consecutive years of paying more money
to people who hate them for a product
they no longer technically need.
This is, Lukashenko note, an achievement.
Not a good achievement.
But an achievement of extraordinary consistency
that deserve formal recognition
from someone who understand consistency,
which is Lukashenko,
who has been consistently wrong about different things since 1994
and find the commitment comforting.
The occasion for this communiqué is the current war with Iran,
which has close the Strait of Hormuz,
raise Brent crude past $105 per barrel,
push American gas price above $4 per gallon for first time since 2022,
threaten global fuel shortage beginning with jet fuel and proceeding
through diesel and eventually to the gasoline
that American citizen use to drive to job
that is now pay less in real terms because of oil price
that is high because of war
that was start to protect access to oil
that America no longer actually need
from OPEC,
which America has been try to stop needing since 1973.
Lukashenko read this sentence back to himself three time.
He pour glass.
He pour second glass for Yuri.
Yuri does not drink on job.
Yuri make exception.
Supreme Leader Lukashenko, in what Molodnaia Pravda Bureau of Historical Analysis is officially designating his finest geopolitical address since the 2019 potato subsidy announcement:
“In Belarus, we have expression.
Actually we do not have this expression.
Lukashenko is inventing it right now, live, in front of Yuri.
Expression go like this:
why stop buying car from man who want to kill you,
when you can also bomb the car factory,
then buy the car anyway
at higher price
from man who is now more angry?
America has been doing this with oil
since nineteen seventy-three.
Fifty-three year.
Through nine president.
Through embargo, hostage crisis, two Gulf Wars,
September eleven, ISIS, and now Operation Epic Fury.
At every possible moment when America could have say:
‘perhaps we invest in wind turbine’ —
America instead say: ‘perhaps we send carrier group.’
Lukashenko respect carrier group.
Lukashenko also have solar calculator.
Solar calculator work fine.
Does not require Strait of Hormuz.
This is relevant data point.”
Lukashenko has request that Molodnaia Pravda compile
official commemorative record of American Middle East
military and energy entanglement,
so that the full arc of achievement
can be appreciate in one place,
rated on official Belarusian Strategic Consistency Scale,
which Lukashenko devise this morning
and which go from one star (accidental competence)
to five star (achievement of such magnificent self-defeat
that Lukashenko remove hat in genuine respect):
1973
OPEC Embargo — oil price +400%
★★★ THREE STAR. America support Israel in Yom Kippur War. Arab OPEC members embargo America. Gas line form across country. Price quadruple. Nixon create Project Independence, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and national 55mph speed limit. Then America forget about all of this almost immediately. Classic opener. Strong foundation for everything that follow.
1979
Iran Revolution + hostage crisis
★★★★ FOUR STAR. Shah fall. Ayatollah arrive. Fifty-two American held hostage for 444 days. Oil price double again. America learn that installing foreign leader who is friendly to oil company but despise by own population is strategy with limited shelf life. America does not fully absorb this lesson. This is critical for everything that follow.
1991
Gulf War I — protect Saudi oil
★★★ THREE STAR. Warlord Bush Sr. deploy half million troop to protect Saudi Arabia’s oil field from Saddam Hussein, who America previously support when he was fight Iran. Coalition of thirty-five nation. War win in 100 hours. Saddam left in power. Oil flow again. America build permanent base in Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden object to base. America note objection, file it, return to purchasing Saudi oil. Solid execution, incomplete follow-through.
2003
Gulf War II — Warlord Bush’s War of Terror
★★★★★ FIVE STAR. MASTERPIECE. America invade Iraq to find weapon of mass destruction that are not there. Saddam remove. Iraq oil infrastructure damage. Regional stability eliminate. ISIS eventually emerge from power vacuum. War cost: $2 trillion minimum. American casualty: 4,431. Iraqi civilian casualty: estimate 100,000 to 600,000. OPEC price: higher. Halliburton profit: also higher. Lukashenko remove hat. This is the one. This is the standard everything else is measure against.
2022
America achieve energy independence
★ ONE STAR. DISAPPOINTING. Through combination of shale revolution, renewable growth, and Canadian import, America become continuously energy independent since March 2022. OPEC share of U.S. crude import fall from 36% in 2008 to just 7% by 2022. This is correct direction. This is what fifty years of strategic thinking was supposed to achieve. America is doing it. Lukashenko is concerned. Something will go wrong. Lukashenko wait.
2026
Operation Epic Fury — Strait now closed
★★★★★ FIVE STAR. TRANSCENDENT. Having achieve energy independence, America launch war in Middle East, close Strait of Hormuz, push Brent crude to $105, raise domestic gas to $4, threaten global jet fuel shortage, and tell allies to “just TAKE” the strait themselves. OPEC: fully relevant again. Trump: claim America insulated from supply shock. Lukashenko: standing ovation. Longest sustained applause since 2003. Yuri also clap. Both hand. Much paper fall on floor.
Отлично
Trump tell primetime television audience that America is
“insulated from supply shock” because it is world’s largest oil producer.
This is technically true.
America produce more oil than any country on earth.
America is also fighting war that close the strait
through which twenty percent of world oil supply travel,
mostly to Asia, which need it more than America,
which has the oil already,
which it is producing in record quantity,
which should mean low price,
except global oil market does not work that way
because oil is price globally
and when you bomb the Middle East
the price go up everywhere
including in country that bomb it
and whose citizen are now pay $4 per gallon
to drive to work
in country that already had the oil.
Lukashenko draw organizational chart.
Chart has one box.
Box say:
you bomb oil region, oil expensive everywhere, including for you.
Chart is so simple that Lukashenko feel slightly embarrass drawing it.
Chart does not need napkin.
Chart barely need thought.
Yuri draw same chart independently on other piece of paper
and arrive at same box.
Yuri and Lukashenko look at each other.
Nobody say anything.
Lukashenko pour glass.
This is moment of shared understanding between two men
who have been watch this happen for fifty years.
Lukashenko, now in what Yuri designate “the renewable energy monologue phase”, which begin around glass four and involve much gesturing at window:
“Look outside. What do you see?
Sun. Wind. Both free.
Both available in large quantity in America,
which is very large country with excellent sun in south
and excellent wind in middle
and very large coastline for offshore wind in both direction.
America also have shale. America also have Canada,
which is directly adjacent, very friendly,
has enormous oil reserve, and has not close any strait recently.
America has all of this.
America look at all of this and say:
‘yes, but what about the Strait of Hormuz?’
And then America send carrier group.
And then oil is $105.
In Belarus, we also have sun and wind.
We cannot afford solar panel because of sanction,
which is ironic situation that Lukashenko note without pleasure.
But if someone offer Belarus solar panel,
Belarus would buy solar panel.
Belarus would not bomb the solar panel factory
and then wonder why solar panel is expensive.
This is difference between Belarus and America.
Belarus has learn from example.
America provide example.
This is symbiotic relationship.
Lukashenko appreciate it deeply.”
Yuri has calculate, on both hands and three separate pieces of paper
that he borrow from Olga who want them back,
that the combined cost of American military intervention
in Middle East since 1973 —
including Gulf War I, Gulf War II, Afghanistan,
various smaller operation, base maintenance,
fuel subsidy, strategic petroleum reserve management,
and current Operation Epic Fury at estimated $200 billion
which is double cost of one year of Iraq War —
is sufficient to have install solar panel
on every residential and commercial rooftop in America
approximately seventeen times.
Seventeen times.
With enough left over, Yuri note carefully,
for significant investment in wind, battery storage,
grid modernization, and
one very nice thank-you gift to Canada
for being reliable oil neighbor
who has never once require carrier group.
Nobody ask Yuri to do this calculation.
Yuri do it anyway.
Yuri show calculation to Lukashenko.
Lukashenko look at calculation for long time.
Lukashenko fold paper.
Lukashenko put paper in desk drawer
next to notebook with Patel password
and organizational chart napkin
and letter to Premier Trump
which is now 1,100 pages
and has entire new chapter on solar panel
in appendix seventeen.
Lukashenko, final remarks, delivered standing, which is unusual, Yuri note in official record, because Lukashenko usually deliver final remarks sitting with glass:
“Premier Trump say the gas price will ‘rapidly come back down’
when war end.
Analyst say: no, price will stay elevated for extended period
due to damage to energy infrastructure and lengthy supply disruption.
Lukashenko say: analyst is correct, but this is also not the point.
The point is: America had sun. America had wind.
America had shale, Canada, and fifty years of hard lesson
about what happen when you make your economy dependent
on oil from region that does not like you very much
and is also somewhat unstable.
America learn all these lesson.
America build entire academic field around these lesson.
America write book about these lesson.
America then look at lesson, look at sun, look at wind,
look at carrier group,
and send carrier group.
This is not stupidity.
Lukashenko refuse to call this stupidity.
This is something more specific.
This is buying Volkswagen from Hitler in 1942
and wonder why the warranty is complicated.
Lukashenko has say what he has say.
Yuri, write it down.
Yuri is writing.
Yuri has found more paper.
Good. We will need it.”
“To America —
who have sun, wind, shale, Canada, and fifty years of painful lesson —
and choose carrier group anyway —
Lukashenko raise glass of Belarusian Premium,
adjust ceremonial acknowledgment coat,
and say: you are the most consistent country on earth.
Not consistent in good way.
But consistent.
OPEC thank you.
Halliburton thank you.
Lukashenko thank you, personally,
for making his job of explaining authoritarian dysfunction
significantly easier by comparison
every time America do this again.
Belarus still has sanction.
Belarus still want solar panel.
Premier Trump has not call.
Letter is 1,100 pages and growing.
Yuri will send when ready.
Yuri is not ready.
Sun is still free.
Nobody care.”
СЛАВА ОПЕК!
GLORY TO OPEC — STILL RELEVANT AFTER ALL THESE WARS!
GLORY TO PREMIER TRUMP — WHO UNDO ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IN SINGLE OPERATION!
СОЛНЦЕ БЕСПЛАТНОЕ. ВОЙНА НЕТ. ЭТО НЕСЛОЖНО.
